Tag Archives: North Carolina Primary

Clinton’s Exit Strategy Choices after North Carolina

This morning, the question is no longer if obama wins the nomination, but when. History was made last night, and North Carolina voters will go down in the record books as the ones who finally moved the country into a new day.

In large part the final decision of when is up to Hillary Clinton, and the history books will take notice of how she leaves the stage. She can leave gracefully, quietly, or kicking and screaming. But she knows she will leave.  Her speech last night was mostly gracious.

Back in college, I had a friend dying of cancer, who, in her final days, was physically restrained in her bed. I admired the crazy old bird’s sheer will to live. But a political campaign is a different matter. Nothing much to admire here,–pretentious to equate a campaign’s life force with that of a human being. In a campaign, all the cudos go to the candidate who gracefully leaves the door ajar for some anticipated return. The other exit is pretty much one way.

Rachel Maddow suggests Hillary will choose the crazy old bird exit strategy.  I hope Maddow is wrong on this one.

As Rahm Emanuel suggested this morning on NPR, how the loser loses (now) will determine whether the winner wins (in November).  I take this to mean that a crazy old bird strategy now might well elect McBush in November. 

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3 Possible Scenarios for Indiana/North Carolina

It just won’t end. usually a campaign has a beginning, middle and end. you can feel its rhythm and anticipate the finale. not this season.

the beginning started a day after the 2006 election, if not several years before (some say Hillary decided the day she won NY in 2000, or the day Bill was impeached). The middle might still be under way, and the end could be tomorrow or in another 3 1/2 months.

TPM sums up polls of the 2 states together as ending up a wash (Obama winning NC by 10 and Clinton wining Indiana by the single digits). The latest poll in NC, however, has Clinton gaining, and Obama ‘s lead down to only 5 points.

So. With that said, here’s 3 scenarios for tomorrow.

1) Obama wins NC and Indiana– it’s over. hillary forced by staff and donors to throw in towel. might take a few days but it is over.

2) Obama wins NC and Clinton wins Indiana. for all the changes week to week, it won’t end.  the delegate count differential remains roughly the same. the slog continues, probably til post- June 3, but the end is in sight. Clinton’s money continues to dry up, and msm begin toying with possible end game scenarios. commentators blabber about the emerging consensus that of it being nearly impossible for her to win– with of course certain caveats– for example, she win at the rules committee later in May which ends up seating Fla. and MI. delegates– to keep msm ratings.

3) Clinton wins Indiana and wins NC, or comes within a point or two.     egads. armageddon!

Closing in on the Democrat’s End Game

A funny feeling emanates when Terry McAuliffe says the nominating fight will end by june 15th. Not the feeling of relief one might expect. Just a feeling of, ut oh, what kind of sh*t is up their sleave now? just today, the NC guv. Mike Easley  is announcing support for Hillary.   Why announce unless NC is in play?  Although she still needs to win about 70% of the pledged delegates to take the nomination, it sure doesn’t feel like they are giving up. just the opposite. Bill is now advisor in chief of the campaign and is pushing his “we aint quitters” mantra.  And while Barack suddenly seems tired, bored or, more likely, like he finally hit the campaign marathon wall, hillary is looking pluck and cheerful as the end game for indiana and north carolina begin to play out.  Were she to win indiana and come close, or even win in NC, the nomination will be pulled from Obama’s grasp, and the real death match with commence.  Is Barack up to it? i hope so but am not convinced.  Hillary has lived her whole life for this.  let’s see what happens