Tag Archives: nomination

Hillary Tells Supporters How/ When She will Drop Out

All signs from last evening’s WV valedictory address by Hillary Clinton suggest she will remain in the race until the final primary June 3. Then, she will talk to her superdelegates and funders one last time, and finally after a few more days, perhaps, she will drop out and support Barack Obama and a unified democratic convention.

I say this because:

1) Her speech softened her negative stance towards Obama

2) She and Bill cannot keep pouring money into the campaign. They may be millionaires, but $20 million already is a lot of money even for them.

3) Hillary made a few points about why she continues. Each point will be satisfied when the voting ends:

She is not a quitter

Her insistence that everyone must be given opportunity to vote: an appeal to suffrage

Her candidacy takes the cause of women beyond where it has previously been. Her poignant anecdote about the ederly WV woman who was born before women had the vote and who lived to cast her vote for Hillary. The pont of this story had a beginning, middle and end. In the beginning, women couldn’t vote; in the middle, women could vote but had no cedible candidate for president; at the end, a vote was cast for a credible female candidate for president; the story, as Hillary told it, did not nd with a female president, only wth a female candidate for president, who went farther than any woman before her.

This story told me Hillary will get out.

Other factors have to do with the rules committee meeting on May 31. At the meeting, a decision will be made regarding the MI and Fla delegations. Quite frankly, she loses whatever they decide.

Thus her persistence has to do with process; once the process ends, so will her candidacy.

It will be a unified convention, featuring Bill Clinton.

Obama-Kaine in ’08?

With a substantial win in North Carolina–14 points–, and a near win in Indiana, there is no longer reason for Clinton to continue her fight for the nomination.

So, the next question is who would help Obama beat John McCain? the answer is Va. Governor Tim Kaine, born in Minnesota.

Kaine is popular in his state and can help Obama win Virginia and other border states. He is an early Obama supporter, perhaps one the the first politicos outside Ilinois to endorse Obama. The alternative is former guv mark warner, whom i know more about and was impressive in his flirtation with a presidential run way back last year.

what do you think? let me know.

Pennsylvania Results

Two take aways from this evenings’ results:

1) If Obama loses Indiana in 2 weeks, he could lose the nomination.  not sure how, but he could lose.

Clinton is not going to pull out; she is going to claim a big victory tonite, and is going to continue throwing the kitchen sink against Obama.  Problem for her is that she is out of money; her big donors are tapped out and it remains to be seen where her funds for advertising in the many mini media markets will come from.  Further, as Chuck Todd suggests, it is nearly impossible at this point for her to win the pledged delegate count.  

But continue she shall.

and here’s the argument:  Howard Wolfson says she is going to pull out an overall popular vote victory come Puerto Rico (counting Florida).  Considering the 2000 election (popular votes versus electoral votes) and, were Clinton to win the popular vote, she indeed could make a valid claim of entitlement for the nomination.  

And in the meantime, MSN’s Joe Scarboro makes a valid claim (1st time i ever said that) that Hillary keeps winning precisely because of her ‘take no prisoners” approach.  no kantian means to ends silliness. The stakes seem so high this time that voters just may want ends over means– get the bums out, no matter how nasty.

so,

2)  the other key result tonite just may be that voters are daring obama to get tougher and even match hillary in playing dirty to win–kitchen sink and all– and then they will help him close it out. 

“Toughness” and fear are going to be big issues in the slog ahead.

is this really where we are?  it’s gut check time.

Yikes.