It just won’t end. usually a campaign has a beginning, middle and end. you can feel its rhythm and anticipate the finale. not this season.
the beginning started a day after the 2006 election, if not several years before (some say Hillary decided the day she won NY in 2000, or the day Bill was impeached). The middle might still be under way, and the end could be tomorrow or in another 3 1/2 months.
TPM sums up polls of the 2 states together as ending up a wash (Obama winning NC by 10 and Clinton wining Indiana by the single digits). The latest poll in NC, however, has Clinton gaining, and Obama ‘s lead down to only 5 points.
So. With that said, here’s 3 scenarios for tomorrow.
1) Obama wins NC and Indiana– it’s over. hillary forced by staff and donors to throw in towel. might take a few days but it is over.
2) Obama wins NC and Clinton wins Indiana. for all the changes week to week, it won’t end. the delegate count differential remains roughly the same. the slog continues, probably til post- June 3, but the end is in sight. Clinton’s money continues to dry up, and msm begin toying with possible end game scenarios. commentators blabber about the emerging consensus that of it being nearly impossible for her to win– with of course certain caveats– for example, she win at the rules committee later in May which ends up seating Fla. and MI. delegates– to keep msm ratings.
3) Clinton wins Indiana and wins NC, or comes within a point or two. egads. armageddon!
Forty years after Bobby Kennedy soothed an Indiana crowd the evening of Martin Luther King Jr.’s death, Indiana voters once again are in the democratic primary limelight. With 160,000 new registrations, Hoosiers are taking seriously their role in deciding the nomination fight.
In 1968, Governor Brannigan was the stand in for Hubert Humphrey. Clinton is the Brannigan/Humphrey hawk, of this race. Obama is the Bobby Kennedy–dove.
But my have things changed. Through the looking glass even. In 08, Clinton has made a caricature of the Humphrey, a reluctant hawk, by cheerfully threatening to obliterate Iran, and by having her supporters attest to her cojones and obama’s by comparison (the latest cojone comment by james carville). nobody dared comment on Bobby Kennedy’s cojones, or if they did, it didn’t rate press attention.
Also, go back to the kennedy speech the night of King’s death. He talked about the racial divide in America in healing terms. Once again, Obama’s recent speeches and his candidacy itself speaks to the country in the same healing tones. Regretfully, his opponents seeks to exacerbate old wounds and exploit fear.
Would be great to see Indiana once again stamping its no-nonsense anti-war (and anti cojone counting), racial healing imprimatur upon the national consciousness.
A funny feeling emanates when Terry McAuliffe says the nominating fight will end by june 15th. Not the feeling of relief one might expect. Just a feeling of, ut oh, what kind of sh*t is up their sleave now? just today, the NC guv. Mike Easley is announcing support for Hillary. Why announce unless NC is in play? Although she still needs to win about 70% of the pledged delegates to take the nomination, it sure doesn’t feel like they are giving up. just the opposite. Bill is now advisor in chief of the campaign and is pushing his “we aint quitters” mantra. And while Barack suddenly seems tired, bored or, more likely, like he finally hit the campaign marathon wall, hillary is looking pluck and cheerful as the end game for indiana and north carolina begin to play out. Were she to win indiana and come close, or even win in NC, the nomination will be pulled from Obama’s grasp, and the real death match with commence. Is Barack up to it? i hope so but am not convinced. Hillary has lived her whole life for this. let’s see what happens