Barack Obama is likely to win Florida next week for two reasons. First, the “sarah silverman crusade’ has been pretty successful with jewish grandparents. Young teenagers and first time voters have convinced their grandparents to vote Obama.
The second reason has to do with the Cuban American community in Miami. The community, almost one million strong has been a republican stronghold for decades, but now appear to be turning to Obama.
Once again, the catalyst has been young Cuban Americans convincing older relatives it is time for a change.
Whereas the jewish community and the cuban american community have their pet issues which they wrongly believe has been better suited to a republican president, they are increasingly seeing that Bush-McCain have not been good stewards of their trust. The Jewish grandmas realize that Israel is less safe now than during the final months of the Clinton Administration when a peace accord was almost at hand. They realize the next administration will be entering a hornets nest of crisis that will demand a steady and firm hand and commitment to diplomacy. Cuban Americans realize that Bush and have only pulled them farther away from their families in havana, creating additional obstacles to sending remittances or engaging in travel.
Because Obama offers change on both fronts, is is likely to get a much higher percentage of votes from these two communities next week.
Given how close Florida was in 2000 and even in 2004, these shifting political currents are likely to make all the difference, and put Florida in the blue column.