The time has come for me to presumptuously say that Barack Obama cannot lose but for fraud. This means, beware of fraud AND help get out the vote.
With twelve days to go, all the indicators are pointing to an Obama victory. The daily tracking polls show Obama maintaining his lead in the Blue states, and forcing the final battles between the campaigns to be waged in the purple and even some red states. 538.com still gives Obama an over 93% chance of winning.
In addition to the polls, Obama’s campaign is running smoothly, despite an occasional belch resulting from overconfidence (Kerry, Murtha, Biden).
Obama’s strategy is on pace while reports have it that McCain is running on tactics and no strategy; Obama’s ground game– his field and get out the vote operation is unmatched, while McCain has almost no ground game at all
Obama’s national voter registration effort is already paying off with the incredible numbers of early voters apparently going to the polls for Obama. Obama’s abudant cash flow is overwhelming McCain in advertising.
Obama’s positives are going up while McCain’s are going down. His negatives are going down while McCain’s are going up.
Almost nobody has a doubt about Joe Biden’s bona fides to serve as president while an overwhelming number of voters have not only second guessed McCain’s choice but see his choice as indicative of his poor judgment.
State and local races are looking great for dems who now imagine picking up at least 34 seats in the House and are looking flirtatiously at the magical (filibuster proof) 60 in the senate.
The Bradley Effect is one possibility, but for it to spell defeat for Obama would mean folks are more racist now than they were in the 1982 california gubernatorial election. Keep in mind that Bradley’s internal polling back then had the race almost even. His loss was really no surprise.
An Obama loss, given the polling, would be shocking. In my opinion fraud is the only way he loses. Fraud would take the path of voter suppression. McCain-Palin are on record as having already made this an issue. their frivolous attacks on ACORN were projections of their own illegal shenanigans.
Greg Palast and Robert F Kennedy Jr. provide the scenario for a McCain victory and it’s not pretty. They key thing here is that fair elections legislation designed to prevent another 2000 fiasco was actually designed by W and Jeb and the Republican machine. They installed their own people into positions around the country to be the gatekeepers of voter registration rolls, with very, very little oversight. Yikes!