Why is McCain running so close to Obama in the polls, when Obama should be 10-15 points ahead by now?
Two reasons jump out:
1) The smear machine is working on a good 5-10% of the population. I believe the damage that they will do has already been done unless a REAL scandal emerges. On that front, it shouldn’t get any worse for BO.
2) Cell phone bias in the polls. Most of the polling of the race that we are seeing does not encapsulate cell-phone-only users. That population, this year more than any other in recent memory, will be voting overwhelmingly for Democrats up and down the ticket. While it wouldn’t change overall #’s by more than 3-5 points, that combined with the real apprehension of some former Reagan Democrats is enough to explain the discrepancy here.
Well I have some ideas on why. (this may be a bit winded)
1st, since no one wants to tackle the 800lbs gorilla in the room, I will. Race. As much as the republicans screwed up the last 8 years, any other democrated candidate would have a commanding lead right now. It it wasn’t for Barack’s ability as an orator, he would be the nominee… now that is one of the reason (because as they say in the poll 75% of white males perfer John McCain and there is no reason to perfer John McCain with the gaffs he made). Still Obama is ahead and that is impressive overcoming a tremendous obstacle. In fact, a friend of mine who lives in Wisconsin and another friend of mine who lives in Indiana, both their mothers think he is muslim.
Another reason is that the republican machine has run and still run on scaring people into thinking that “different” means bad. You saw how fast John McCain towed the Republican line, all the way to making irrevalent and just plain stupid remarks. McCain spends most of his on air time attacking why Barack did this or why Barack didn’t do that and it works to a certain extent. But I think that after Obama’s successful Middle East and European tour I think the polls will change.
Third, the polls are wrong and they have been wrong all along. If you recall, when Reagan ran a second term, it was suppose to be a close race (according to the polls) and he won in a landslide. Also, I think most people are reserving judgement and I a lot of people are campaign coverage fatigue.
Last, as McCain is complaining about Obama getting unfair press coverage, positive press coverage, that was the same route that Hillary went with (and we saw how well that worked out for her, eh). But truly the unfair is that McCain is getting preferential treatment and the people are not being informed by the media. Think about it, if Obama would have called the German Chancellor, Putin (McCain did), consistently mix the difference between Shite and Sunni and the big one, if someone in the Obama camp said that Americans are full of whiners, it would be still making headlines news today. Michelle Obama is STILL getting raked over the coals about her statement “for the first time in my adult life, I am proud to be an American”. Yet McCain’s chief economic advisor, Graham, makes that statement about whiners when it comes to the economy, that statement only gets a weeks worth of play.
I think that Obama star has risen so high and so fast that the media is constantly looking for a way to knock him down a peg or two. I think they have been over critizing the leadership that he took by addressing the German Citizens. I think many people are mising out on a golden opportunity that the world is ready to embrace the USA again if it has the right leader.
If this country do the right thing and vote Obama in, then in ONE night, we can undo 8 years of total insanity. This man can talk to leaders in both the Jewish and Arab worlds and is being welcome with open arms by both. He can get 200,000 non-americans to show up to one of his speeches, waving american flags, when if it was the current president, those folks would be burning those flags. He brings hope to the entire world and I don’t see how that doesn’t translate into better poll numbers unless the polling procedures is flawed somehow.
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