Why McCain is Going to Lose

Even tho McCain is running for Bush’s third term, only 8% of Bush’s top donors from ’04– those who maxed out- have given to McCain’s campaign, which suggests trouble for McCain.

Even the right wing talking heads are predicting failure.  Of all the mistakes he has made since landing as a NYTime op-ed writer, Bill Kristol has finally gotten one right, saying that Republicans are concerned about McCain because of the disarray in his campaign and lack of campaign organization in swing states around the country. With three months gone as the presumptive nominee, McCain has not yet organized a national campaign. See Kristol oped

Of all the reasons why Hillary lost, the most compelling in my opinion is that her campaign failed to organized states beyond the Super Tuesday primaries in early february.  All the while, the Obama campaign had organized a national campaign with operations in nearly every state.  Although some , including Kristol, are scared over McCain’s ineffectual speaking style, keep in mind that Bush still barely speaks coherent sentences.   Keep also in mind that McCain was far more articulate than Bush during the 2000 primaries, but Bush is the one whose campaign had a national strategy.  While others are concerned that the right wing base might well sit this one out, Obama potentially has a similar problem with Hillary diehards.  And if one goes back to the Bill campaigns, starting in ’92, you see that he won because of his national operation, not because of his personal charisma or policy positions. He out-organized his Dem. opponents as well as GW Bush.

All this to suggest, that Obama could sweep into office not so much because of his charisma, style, policy positions and people’s horror at the direction the country is heading. rather, he could well win big because he is organizing a national campaign the way he organized the streets of Chicago, quietly, effectively and thoroughly, and with a keen operation of committed staff and volunteers.   

Consider the following email message from David Plouffe from this evening,

I am proud to announce that our presidential campaign will be the first in a generation to deploy and maintain staff in every single state.
The network of volunteers and the infrastructure built up during the historic primary season — on behalf of all the Democratic campaigns — have given us an enormous and unprecedented opportunity in the general election.

As Kristol suggests, the Republicans are right to be afraid. And I am sort of afraid that Kristol got one right.




One response to “Why McCain is Going to Lose

  1. McCain is hardly running for Bush’s third term.

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