Obama Likely to Win Big by Losing WV

The Obama campaign is serious about redrawing the electoral math this November in its quest to win perhaps 350 electoral votes against McCain. Their strategy for today fits perfectly within their new math. They know they are going to lose, and going with the “No More Drama Vote Obama” slogan, they have little desire to pretend otherwise.  They also know the data suggests they will lose WVA to McCain in November.

Big deal.

David Sirota has talked about the phenomenon of race and the white working class voter, and the Obama campaign seems quite aware of this phenomena and unbotherd by it.  The analysis xplained Obama’s losses in Ohio, PA, Indiana, and now West Virginia.

The Poblano Model, see FiveThirtyEight.com provides a sophisticated regression model that shows the positive impact that Obama’s national voter registration drive Vote For Change is likely to have this fall.  Specifically, the Poblano Model shows how increases in registration– if they successfully result on increasing voter turnout– among young, African American and Latino voters would shift the map in Obama’s favor. 

Obama gets: Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia, North Carolina, Iowa, Missouri, Colorado, PA.

Sufficient turnout would also put in play: Georgia, Fla. (I doubt), and South Carolina, (and I think potentially Texas).

The point here is to support the argument that today’s results do not count not only b/c Obama has already won the nomination, but because he doesn’t need the campaign organization/ infrastructure in the state b/c he is not likely to win here this fall.  Look where he is going to be this evening– Missouri, and you can see his campaign is already several steps ahead.



6 responses to “Obama Likely to Win Big by Losing WV

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  5. And now for a real comment…

    Fully agreed. I’ve also been following Poblano, the guy is truly brilliant with election modeling. Did you see his post about the “best case scenario” of 50% turnout increase among young voters, 50% among blacks and 40% among Hispanics.

    I’ll see the states you mentioned, and raise you New Mexico, North Dakota, Montana and Alaska. Hey, the small states still count! (14 EVs combined)

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