3 Possible Scenarios for Indiana/North Carolina


It just won’t end. usually a campaign has a beginning, middle and end. you can feel its rhythm and anticipate the finale. not this season.

the beginning started a day after the 2006 election, if not several years before (some say Hillary decided the day she won NY in 2000, or the day Bill was impeached). The middle might still be under way, and the end could be tomorrow or in another 3 1/2 months.

TPM sums up polls of the 2 states together as ending up a wash (Obama winning NC by 10 and Clinton wining Indiana by the single digits). The latest poll in NC, however, has Clinton gaining, and Obama ‘s lead down to only 5 points.

So. With that said, here’s 3 scenarios for tomorrow.

1) Obama wins NC and Indiana– it’s over. hillary forced by staff and donors to throw in towel. might take a few days but it is over.

2) Obama wins NC and Clinton wins Indiana. for all the changes week to week, it won’t end.  the delegate count differential remains roughly the same. the slog continues, probably til post- June 3, but the end is in sight. Clinton’s money continues to dry up, and msm begin toying with possible end game scenarios. commentators blabber about the emerging consensus that of it being nearly impossible for her to win– with of course certain caveats– for example, she win at the rules committee later in May which ends up seating Fla. and MI. delegates– to keep msm ratings.

3) Clinton wins Indiana and wins NC, or comes within a point or two.     egads. armageddon!

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