Threading WV Results Thru Head of Needle

Watching the WV results, some observations:

1) no state has taken more abuse than West Virginia. We live in Maryland, and have driven through and visited parts of West Virginia. Quite beautiful actually. It was also a democratic state before ‘W” successfully appealed to the gun toting, pro-life and anti mining rights folks back in 2000.

But

The media is a) dwelling on the white non college educated, earning under 40k WVA voter, to the exclusion, for example of the state’s proud democratic past; and b) refusing to refer specifically to this as a “white trash” factor, but you know they want to since this is all they are (not) talking about.

But allude to it they are: 1) as the reason for Obama’s inability to connect with the WVA voter, and 2) as behind Clinton’s deliberate strategy to cultivate these voters against Obama (it wouldn’t work against McCain, another reason why she is stuck).

Terry McCauliffe is the exception. here he is saying the white, uneducated vote will win the general election for Hillary. Quite frankly, he might have been on to somethings if Hillary’s policy platform had been genuinely populist– like Edwards– instead of superficial and exploitive, a wedge issue.

Chris Matthews is sort of asking if he is serious. he swallows the smirk and says, yes, and by the way, she will win Kentucky next week. as west virginia goes, so goes the nation!!! is their rallying cry for the evening. So, MacAuliffe says she is in the race b/c she is gonna win. (Bah, even he is chuckling).

See my previous post: it just doesn’t matter.

2) As the talking heads this evening find a way to fill the airtime with a 2-1 Clinton win, they are giving Hillary one final bow, or next week.

3) They are comparing Hillary to Mike Huckabee’s remaning in the race against McCain, and suggesting his impact on McCain as hyped. Huckabee agrees.

4) Huckabee suggests Hillary hasn’t dropped out yet because the people around her havent told her to, yet.

5) Bill Richardson says, Obama’s weaknesses are being hyped. Obama has it won, c’mon Keith. Time to unite behind the nominee and go after McCain.

Finally, Hillary just spoke, and for her, it was an impressive evocation of her claim to be president. a good speech, well delivered. problem is, she is speaking from within a bubble; speaking a truth that is hers alone and that appears at odds with the facts, which suggest she needs over 90% of the remaining delegates. bust as she said, “i will never quit. I will never quit. never!

Obama Likely to Win Big by Losing WV

The Obama campaign is serious about redrawing the electoral math this November in its quest to win perhaps 350 electoral votes against McCain. Their strategy for today fits perfectly within their new math. They know they are going to lose, and going with the “No More Drama Vote Obama” slogan, they have little desire to pretend otherwise.  They also know the data suggests they will lose WVA to McCain in November.

Big deal.

David Sirota has talked about the phenomenon of race and the white working class voter, and the Obama campaign seems quite aware of this phenomena and unbotherd by it.  The analysis xplained Obama’s losses in Ohio, PA, Indiana, and now West Virginia.

The Poblano Model, see FiveThirtyEight.com provides a sophisticated regression model that shows the positive impact that Obama’s national voter registration drive Vote For Change is likely to have this fall.  Specifically, the Poblano Model shows how increases in registration– if they successfully result on increasing voter turnout– among young, African American and Latino voters would shift the map in Obama’s favor. 

Obama gets: Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia, North Carolina, Iowa, Missouri, Colorado, PA.

Sufficient turnout would also put in play: Georgia, Fla. (I doubt), and South Carolina, (and I think potentially Texas).

The point here is to support the argument that today’s results do not count not only b/c Obama has already won the nomination, but because he doesn’t need the campaign organization/ infrastructure in the state b/c he is not likely to win here this fall.  Look where he is going to be this evening– Missouri, and you can see his campaign is already several steps ahead.

 

WV Primary Coverage Could Help Frame Post-Clinton Legacy

The West Virginia primary today is all show and no substance. it will do nothing to change the direction of the race. All the media will be there tonight covering the spectacle of Hillary’s grandiose, double digit victory, but even it, will be hard pressed to make much of it.  Hillary will take a victory lap, talk about how she has the coalition required for victory in November, and hopefully not much will be made of that either. 

Obama will graciously acknowledge Clinton’s victory, refer to her as a formidible opponent, appeal to her supporters and hopefully too, take some shots at his McBush opponent this fall.

In other words, we know the narrative and the candidate’s role for the evening. The question is whether the media will play along, or will they shamelessly promote the idea that the race is still a contest, that Hillary is still a candidate worth covering as such.  Since the horse race is over, I hope the media take’s its prime time role tonight to begin a process of revising the Clinton’s legacy.

This is the far more interesting angle, for me. The time is right, in this pre convention period, for the media to reframe the race, and for the Clinton legacy, to undergo some important revisionism.

Finally, after about 10 years, democrats are taking  closer look at the Clinton duo and beginning to reconcile a recognition many had back in 1992 that they were an imperfect vehicle for progressive dreams. Not since their McGovern days were they truly liberals. Perhaps not even then.

Liberal democrats winced and pretended Bill really was one of them. Bill had some liberal ideas, who was all to willing to horse trade them away. He always sounded to me more committed to “reinventing government” and welfare reform which embraced the pro market mantra that the market was better equipped to handle social problems than government.  This was Reaganesque. His claim that the “era of big government is over,” was a Milton Friedmanesque statement, and the press has rarely vetted it as such. 

I think the Obama candidacy is giving spirited progressives the chance to reclaim some of their ideals, and to pack them into the imperfect vessel of a new candidate, one perhaps with a vision closer to their own.