Obama wins North Carolina

Obama gets decisive victory in North Carolina. Clinton is likely to win Indiana.

so,

where are we?

Obama gains, perhaps about 60,000-150,000 in popular vote, and delegate count split is likely a wash, leaving obama in the lead on all counts.

The key, again, is going to be race.

If Clinton wrestles this thing from Obama, the African-American community is very likely to stay home– in large numbers– in november, and John McBush becomes next President. I think it is that easy.

Clinton Team Just Changed Goal Posts for Hillary, again

Terry McAuliffe just told Chris Matthews that Hillary will be ahead in popular vote on june 3, and will be real close in pledged delegates, but the key, according to McAuliffe, is none of the above. It is momentum. He calls it basically a tie thus far in the process, but she has the head of steam, and will be the strongest candidate in the fall.

So, now the key for Hillary is momentum.

one thing to keep in mind, George H.W. Bush referred to the Big Mo in 1980, only to lose to ronald reagan. it is another losing argument.

update: once the networks called NC for Obama, it is quickly clear that McAuliffe’s goalpost of momentum for Hillary will change next time he is put in front of a mike. wonder what’s next?

How Barack Wins: the Fonzie Syndrome

Like Fonzie from “Happy Days,” Barack Obama is cool, loved and respected, and crowds go crazy when he enters the room.  But the thing about “the Fonz” is nobody messed with him, and at the moment everyone it seems is messing with Barack.

It’s not that Fonzie is a fighter. Actually, like Barack, he disdains fighting. Like Barack he brushes threats off his shoulders, to the crowds’ delight.  But here’s the thing.  The Fonz’ magic exists because at one point (in the past) he really clocked a guy. big time.  and since then the myth of a peaceful–new politics– fonz took hold.

Here’s the lesson for Barack. Just once, he really needs to clock his opponent.  Big time. Just once.   and then perhaps, folks won’t question his toughness, bona fides, cojones, and so forth.  Just once. 

 

3 Possible Scenarios for Indiana/North Carolina

It just won’t end. usually a campaign has a beginning, middle and end. you can feel its rhythm and anticipate the finale. not this season.

the beginning started a day after the 2006 election, if not several years before (some say Hillary decided the day she won NY in 2000, or the day Bill was impeached). The middle might still be under way, and the end could be tomorrow or in another 3 1/2 months.

TPM sums up polls of the 2 states together as ending up a wash (Obama winning NC by 10 and Clinton wining Indiana by the single digits). The latest poll in NC, however, has Clinton gaining, and Obama ’s lead down to only 5 points.

So. With that said, here’s 3 scenarios for tomorrow.

1) Obama wins NC and Indiana– it’s over. hillary forced by staff and donors to throw in towel. might take a few days but it is over.

2) Obama wins NC and Clinton wins Indiana. for all the changes week to week, it won’t end.  the delegate count differential remains roughly the same. the slog continues, probably til post- June 3, but the end is in sight. Clinton’s money continues to dry up, and msm begin toying with possible end game scenarios. commentators blabber about the emerging consensus that of it being nearly impossible for her to win– with of course certain caveats– for example, she win at the rules committee later in May which ends up seating Fla. and MI. delegates– to keep msm ratings.

3) Clinton wins Indiana and wins NC, or comes within a point or two.     egads. armageddon!